We stated on 26th October, via this blog, that this was going to be an election that was too close to call, and so it is proving. But there is going to be no outlandish predications from the square office here in Amington, about the eventual winner. One thing we do know however, is that the outcome is not going to be declared within a few hours; more likely a few days.
Markets hate uncertainty, and as I write equity indices are nervous and lower this morning, and this could continue for the rest of the week. We predicated an increase in volatility for the markets this week, so these movements will come as no surprise, as markets knee jerk across the globe to the various statements being made by the combatants involved. As stock markets get nervous the dollar is gaining ground, and as we have previously pointed out, as the Dollar rises – markets fall, and that is the current direction.
If we were forced to predict, we would go for a Biden Presidency, but a Republican Senate – so stalemate for the next four years on policy. But do not put your shirt on this, as this election has a long way to go.
But at least then we would know where we are!