Blog – There will be a deal Markets continue to recover from the trials and tribulations of December, with the FTSE 100 Index trading again above the 7000 level. We have stated many times in our comments that there will be a deal by 29 March, and the UK will leave the EU on that date. As aficionados of the BBC 2 programme ‘Inside Europe’ will know, the EU leaves everything to the last seconds to negotiate, and they have plenty of previous in this area. Witness Maastricht, The Greek Crisis, The Collapse of the Euro Crisis, Spain, Portugal Et Al, over the last 20 years. There are clear signs that the EU is cracking. Last week after the votes in the commons, the EU negotiators got a repost out within 6 mins of the Graham Brady Amendment being passed. This suggests a level of potential insecurity. Secondly, the oft touted (by EU officials) of an extension to Article 50, would appear to be politico code for, the EU do not want a ‘No Deal Brexit’, as they would lose not only the 49 Billion Euro divorce payment, but also any ongoing 17 Billion Euro per annum payments that may come out of a ‘Backstop’ agreement. The most significant game changer came from Germany’s IFO Institute for Economic Research, which has challenged the EU’s hard line stance against the UK, warning that it is highly unlikely the UK will capitulate before 29 March. IFO states that the EU have mishandled Brexit negotiations in an attempt to ‘punish’ the UK for daring to hold a referendum, against EU advices. Since 2000 the UK have paid 76 Billion Euros into the EU Coffers, second only to Germany, as the EU’s second largest economy. This provides the Prime Minister with the kind of fire power she has been seeking. So with that backing, rip up the current agreement, negotiate a free trade agreement which represents the wishes of both the UK and the EU, and have the courage to Walk. The EU desperately needs the 49 Billion Euros, and we need a deal that protects 80% of our economy, i.e. our service industries. Sounds simple – and it is. Does our leader have what it takes to hammer this out in time? A good deal will undoubtedly be better than a bad deal, so Theresa, go and make it happen, please.   Until next time