The summertime nearly always brings with it a stock market wobble or two, and we were largely expecting the antics of President Trump to be the instigator of such movements. As it happens it’s the instability of Turkey, and it’s currency that is the catalyst of the current market ills.
The Turkish Lira dropped to a fresh low today, following a sharp fall last week, down about 6%. The Lira’s weakness is setting off a chain reaction through other emerging countries’ currencies, as the Turkish authorities have made no announcements regarding any defensive actions they may take. The possibility of an interest rate hike and capital controls could be on the way though.
This is however very local to Turkey, and should in theory not be a problem for the major developed markets of the world. The contagion risks centre upon the Spanish, Italian and French banks exposed to Turkish foreign currency debt. With no positive approach from the Turkish Central Bank, further wobbles are possible. This smells like the Greek currency crisis all over again, and by the time full employment, after the holidays, returns to the city, matters should be resolved. Could be stormy in the meantime though!